Lost Languages

It is a sad but true fact that out of the more than six thousand languages that existed in the world at one time, one disappears every fortnight! Take the example of Patrick Nudjulu of North Australia, one of the three remaining speakers of the dying language Mati Ke. As tradition forbids him to speak to his sister, he does not have anyone he can speak his own language with, and as a consequence, the language is dying out, and will disappear with the death of Patrick. Some of the other languages that will disappear soon and be lost forever are, according to Duncan Walker, Abenaki, Atures, Welsh, and Manx.   (Walker, Duncan 2005) In any culture, land and its language are closely inter connected, and in Aboriginal Australia, this is especially true because the entire continent is divided by its hills and other geographical distinctions, and also because of its languages. The people of Wadeye, who spoke Mati Ke, were forced to move over and start using the Murrinh-Patta. This meant that Mati Ke was no longer being used, and nobody even realized in the beginning that the language of their ancestors was slipping away into oblivion. Patrick Nudjulu, an old man, and one of the few people left in the world who can actually speak Mati Ke still, says, â€Å"I still dream in Mati Ke. See all in the past.† His own daughter and granddaughter do not know how to speak this language, and they use the Murrinh-Patta that they are more familiar with. It is interesting to note that for Patrick Nudjulu, English is his fourth of fifth strongest language. The author of the book Mark Abley, in a quest to gain knowledge of a few words of Mati Ke, learnt that ‘mi warzu’ is the name for fruit in Mati Ke, ‘a dhan gi’ means salt water prawns, ‘a wayelh’ refers to goanna lizard, although it was sadly true that Patrick Nudjulu himself was forced to use the Murrinh-Patta to communicate with his family. Patrick’s story is indeed a tragic but an all too familiar one; he was forced to leave the town in which he had been living after his parents had given up their difficult life in the bush, but had to go back to life in the bush because he could no longer tolerate the destruction of his town. He has in effect returned to the bark and bough shelters that were familiar to him, as he had lived in them through his childhood. However, despite his best efforts, it was obvious that his language would not be saved; although he spoke to his grandchildren in Mati Ke, they chose to reply to him in Murrinh-Patta, thereby leaving no doubt at all that yet another language, Mati Ke, is on its inexorable way to extinction.   Ã‚  (Abley, Mark 2005) Works cited Abley, Mark â€Å"Spoken here, travels among threatened languages† (2005) Google Book Search retrieved on March 11, 2008 from Walker, Duncan â€Å"In defence of ‘lost’ languages† BBC News (2005) Retrieved on March 11, 2008 from      

Learning Strategies

It goes without saying that effective training strategies motivate learners and ensure better results and outcomes from the studying process. It is possible to use instructional strategies to build confidence, to make success easier, to demonstrate relevance of the process as well as to engage learners to solve real problems. Actually, instructional strategies allow students to discover, to share and to explore the matters of particular interest for them. Classroom should be treated as gym. It doesn’t mean that desks should be replaced by balance beam. It means that significant shifts are required in instructional approaches. The first effective instructional strategy is to integrate training with what students know. This strategy assists in building skills and knowledge of learners. Furthermore, it complements trainings they’ve already and prepares them for developing additional skills. This strategy suggests integrating new information with what students already known. It is necessary to set a comfortable tone in order to encourage sharing and participation and to motivate challenge of ideas and debates regarding the subject. The strategy emphasizes using if familiar metaphors and schemes. The objective of the strategy it to make learners share their personal experience, obtained knowledge of the related topic. Online discussions, groups meetings and e-mails are appreciated as well. The second strategy is to connect training to relevant purposes and goals. This strategy helps to grab learners’ attention to the goals and objectives of the studying process. Instructor should be clear about the goals of the training, because it helps learners to move in directions which correspond to program’s goals and purposes. Learning goals should be related to personal goals of the learners. Actually, instructor has to encourage participatory goals setting, because students would work together in order to pick core performance goals. Also creating of action plan is appreciated as it would assist in customizing new and already existing knowledge. References Pardes, Juan Rudel. (1994, July-August). Motivate Every Learner: How to Replace Motivation Myths with Strategies that Work. Retrieved March 6, 2007, from http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0STR/is_n1_v104/ai_15669489/pg_2 Creating Training that Motivates. (2001). Retrieved March 6, 2007, from http://seniortechcenter.org/archive/learning_paths/training/start_lesson/creating_training_motivate.php#strategies                Learning Strategies INTRODUCTIONEducators of young children have a propensity to share the goal of fostering children’s successful learning and achievement. As the pressure to give emphasis to academic standards enhances, it is all the more vital to reflect on the most effective practices for make certain that children are in fact learning what is being taught. Several factors related to children’s achievement are not in teachers’ control, but creating a climate of engagement in the classroom is (Finn, J.D., & D.A. Rock. 1997). The use of strategies is a powerful teaching tool vital in promoting children’s achievement for the reason that it focuses children on learning; supports learning specific skills and concepts; and provides children positive associations with learning.GENERAL DISCUSSIONMaintenance rehearsal refers to the simple repetition of items to hold them in working memory, where we are conscious of them. Thus, when we want to remember a phone number for long enoug h to ring it, or write it down, we repeat it to ourselves until we have completed our action. Rehearsal is an effective strategy for short-term recall, and young children can be taught to use the strategy (Graham, S., & B. Weiner. 1996). However, continued use of the strategy is more unlikely than not. It may be however, that training was insufficient to impress upon the children the usefulness of the strategy, and with better feedback they might be encouraged to use the strategy spontaneously. Maintenance rehearsal no doubt seems a self-evident strategy to any adult, simple as it is and long accustomed as we are to using it. However, it is, like any strategy, something we have to learn to do. It is rare in five year olds, common in ten year olds.Categorizing is another very basic strategy that many of us use to help us remember items (Baine, 1986) Thus, if you are given a list: APPLE  Ã‚   JEEPNEY  Ã‚   PANSY  Ã‚   TRUCK  Ã‚   SAMPAGUITA  Ã‚   PLUM  Ã‚   PEACH  Ã‚   M OTORCYCLE  Ã‚   ROSE  Ã‚   MARIGOLD  Ã‚   MANGO  Ã‚   CAR the items will be much easier to remember if you note that the items belong to only three categories fruit, vehicles, flowers. Noting that there are four examples of each will also help. The category labels help considerably when it comes to retrieving the information. Most educated adults do this sort of thing automatically.But, again, like any strategy no matter how simple, it is not something we are born knowing. Very young children are not likely to group items at all, but if they do, it will be most likely according to some sort of association (cornflakes —  milk, baby — bottle, paper — pencil). If young children are taught to group items into taxonomic categories, they will still not use category labels effectively when retrieving the information, without explicit instruction. From around 6 or 7, children seem to benefit more from instruction in categorization strategies. If the children a re very young, such instruction may only confuse them. Using category labels as retrieval cues appears to be a more complex strategy than the first step of learning to group according to category, and doesn’t appear until later.Even children as old as 11 may benefit from explicit reminders to use category labels as retrieval cues and search the categories exhaustively before moving on. At around 7, about 50% of children appreciate the value of categorization as a memory strategy. This doesn’t increase all that much over the next few years (about 60% of ten year olds), although nearly all 17 year olds understand the strategy.The value of category labels in helping young children learn is another strategy. Category labels don’t appear to particularly help recall in children before the age of ten. Picture recognition is assisted by labeling in children as young as four. Researchers have had mixed results in labeling pictures as an aid to learning paired association s in young children. Labeling pictures does not appear to help very young children remember the order of items, but can be helpful to children from six years old until they are of an age to spontaneously label, when such explicit labeling may interfere with their own learning strategy. Labeling however often part of a wider strategy and may is well be helpful to young children for other reasons than improving recall. For example, it may be useful in helping children acquire language.Mnemonics is another strategy used by teachers for the children. Research into whether young children can improve recall by using visual imagery has produced mixed results (Yair, G. 2000). It would seem that, in general, the instruction to generate mental images does not improve recall in children 5 yrs and younger, but does improve recall in children 8 years and above. Children of six and seven appear to be at a transitional stage whereby some children can use the strategy effectively in some situations . The story, or sentence, mnemonic is a verbal mnemonic in which words to be remembered are linked together in a sentence or sentences (Brewster, C., & J. Fager. 2000). It is an effective strategy for learning a list of words.The research confirms that memory even in very young children can be helped by teaching them to use this verbal mnemonic strategy. It is more effective if the words are linked by verbs rather than prepositions simply stringing together words like this: The cat and the banana and the boat were in the sky† is much less memorable than composing: â€Å"The cat ate the banana and tossed the boat into the sky.† Sentence mnemonics have been effectively used by 6th graders to remember the correct spelling of words. The keyword method is one of the most successful mnemonic strategies to be used in education.It is of proven effectiveness as a method of learning new words, foreign language words, and social studies facts. As a technique for learning new words , it has been compared with the following common strategies: learning words in context; finding root words; learning synonyms and antonyms; presenting words in meaningful sentences; having students discriminate correct from incorrect use of words in sentences; and having students generate their own meaningful sentences and is apparently more effective than any of these methods. The keyword mnemonic has been used effectively by 4th graders. When pictures have been provided, it has been used effectively by 2nd graders. It is suggested that, for children 10 years and younger, instructions to visualize are supplemented by illustrating pictures.CONCLUSIONIdeally, teachers should use a wide range of strategies and then masterfully facilitate their implementation. Not only do strategies enable teachers to capture the interest of children as they learn the skills and concepts necessary for success in school, but children also experience what it feels like to be engaged in learning – a lifelong gift.   The strategies chosen depend on the purpose, teaching style, and the children in the classroom. Regardless of the strategies selected, effective facilitation is a key to making them work. By facilitation it means that the techniques used to execute a strategy.REFERENCE:Baine, David 1986. Memory and instruction. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Educational Technology Publications.Brewster, C., & J. Fager. 2000. Increasing student engagement and motivation: From time on task to homework. Portland, OR: Northwest Regional Educational Laboratory.Finn, J.D., & D.A. Rock. 1997. Academic success among students at risk for school failure. Journal of Applied Psychology 82 (2): 221–34.Graham, S., & B. Weiner. 1996. Theories and principles of motivation. In Handbook of educational psychology, eds. D. Berliner & R.C. Calfee, 62–84. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.Yair, G. 2000. Reforming motivation: How the structure of instruction affects students’ learning experiences. Briti sh Educational Journal 26 (2): 191–210. Learning Strategies 1. Learning Strategies for SSC100 SSC100 is not only a common course, but also sets the tone for the whole four-semester study life in Seneca. Therefore, we should pay more attention to this course. My GPA to date is 3. 0 and my target GPA is 3. 5. In order to acheive the target, there are several strategies I should follow . First, take the classes regularly. Some other students may think that it’s not necessary to attend the classes , without which they can still pass this course.However, the powerpoints and the videos the instructors display in the classes are not only interesting but also helpful. Second, read through the textbook: Success Strategies for College. This book introduces diffrernt kinds of learning strategies in details, which are very useful in SSC100 itself, especially in the reflective test, and other courses throughout Seneca. Third, invovle in the group work. To tell the truth, I am not a good team worker, which is neither good for the current college stu dy nor good for the future work.Therefore, I should attach more importance to this part. Communication is a key factor in the group work. I will try my best to listen to others and give my own opinion as much as possible. Last, practice presentation. As for the group work, presentation is one of the most important parts. Practices can sooth the nerves and make the process more smooth in the real presentation. There are two ways to practice the presentation: first, gather the group mates to simulate; second, take part in the presentation workshops in the learning center.

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 - Research Paper Example Discrimination based on Race, Color, religion, and nationality In the beginning of 1960s, most Americans knew the potential of having equal protection was to be fulfilled in the fourteenth amendment. There was a debate in the three arms of the government and the public on whether the constitution enhances equal protection to all American workers, but civil Acts has been able to protect American workers from being discriminated based on color, religion, race, and national origin. It is, therefore, unlawful to deny equal employment opportunity to an employee because of his race, or even perceived race, or race-linked characters such as hair color and facial features, or because the individual is married to or has an association with another person of a particular race and color. This law also extended non-discrimination protection to workers who are disabled. There have been attempts to enact the legislation to protect lesbians, bisexual and gay workers from discrimination but the Cong ress has failed to protect workers from discrimination based on sexual orientation. ... Sex was added in the law to protect Alice Paul who was a woman. Section 703 part A declared it unlawful for an employee to refuse to hire or even discharge a worker with respect to the worker’s terms of service, compensation, or any privilege of employment because of the individual’s race, national origin, color or religion. Final bill that was passed allowed sex to be one of the considerations especially when the sex of the worker was a bona fide qualification for an intended job. EEOC was later created under Title VII for implementing this law. Recruiting, Hiring and Advancement Section 703 Part A protects workers during hiring process, and it states that it is unlawful to discriminate an employee with respect to compensation or any other privileges of employment. Any job requirement should be applied in a uniform and consistent manner to all persons regardless of the race and color. Moreover, a job requirement should without putting in place job performance or needs of the business; otherwise, it will be unlawful if the specific requirements will exclude persons of specific race and color in a significant way than others. For instance, an employer who solicits applications from applicants of the same race and color, or applicants with a specific education background which may not be important for the performance of the job, or even testing the job applicants for knowledge or abilities when the job performance is not important. In other circumstances, an employer may require racial information of an applicant for having affirmative action. To obtain information relating to race without discriminating the employee is by using separate forms or

Financial Report Analysis Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Financial Report Analysis - Assignment Example The Group’s performance in 2012 is testament to the strength of their strategies, the quality of their technologies and the ability and determination of their employees and members. They made a final payment to shareholders of 11.9 pence per share bringing the full year payment to 19.5 pence per share, an increase of 11 per cent from the year 2011. Ratio analysis is very important to all companies as it gives an insight on the hidden features of the company performance. Rolls-Royce Company seems to be performing very well for the past five years and more so for the reports provided at the end of February 2013 (GROPPELLI, ANGELICO, EHSAN NIKBAKHT ,2000 pg. 43). All of the ratios calculated including profitability, liquidity, gearing and returns ratios exhibits the company as being on the right track in terms of growth. The returns on investment and returns on capital employed have more than doubled in a period of one year. This is a clear indication that the shareholdersâ€℠¢ funds are being employed in the right manner. On the profitability ratios, all of them have experienced growth and improvement in the last one year while maintaining a relatively constant growth in expenses which gives a good report on the company. the company is also very liquid as exhibited by the positivity and the growth of the liquidity ratios. GROUP TWO YEAR REVIEW FOR THE YEARS ENDED 31ST DECEMBER INCOME STATEMENT 2012 2011 Revenue 12,161 11,124 Profit before net research and development and share of results of joint ventures and associates 2,488 1,536 Research and development (net) (589) (463) Share of results of joint ventures and associates 173 116 Profit before financing 2072 1189 Net financing 633 (84) Profit/(loss) before taxation 2705 1105 TAXATION (410) (257) Profit/(loss) for the year 2295 848 Attributable to: Equity shareholders of the parent 2281 850 Non-controlling interests 14 (2) Profit/(loss) for the year 2295 848 Research and development (gross) (919) (908) Underlying profit before taxation 1429 1157 EARNINGS PER ORDINARY SHARE: underlying 59.27p 48.54p basic 123.23p 45.95p Payments to shareholders per ordinary share 19.50p 17.50p BALANCE SHEET assets 18115 16423 liabilities (12010) (11904) Net assests 6105 4519 Ratio calculations Type of ratio formula 2012 2011 Liquidity ratios Current ratio Current assets Current liabilities 9593= 1.33 7194 8315 = 1.202 6916 Acid test ratio Current assets- stock Current liabilities 0.95 0.83 Net working capital ratio Net working capital Net assets 2399 = 0.39 6,105 1399 = 0.31 4,519 Working capital Current assets – current liabilities 2399 1399 Cash ratio Cash + marketable securities Current liabilities 1317 = 0.183 7194 223 = 0.032 6916 Leverage ratios Debt ratio Total liabilities Total assets 12010 = 0.66 18115 11904 = 0.725 16423 Debt /equity ratio Total liabilities Net worth 12010 = 1.97 6105 11904 = 2.6 4519 Long-term debt ratio Long term liabilities Net assets 11405 = 1.87 6105 11723 = 2 .6 4519 Profitability ratios Gross margin ratio Gross profit sales 2745 = 0.2 12161 2448= 0.2 11124 Operating margin EBIT sales 2705 = 0.045 12161 1105 = 0.019 11124 Operating ratio operating expenses sales 1918 = 0.16 12161 1714 = 0.15 11124 Net profit margin Net profit sales 2295 = 0.19 12161 848 = 0.08 11124 return of investment (ROI) Net profit after taxes Total assets 2295 = 0.127 18115 848 = 0.052 16423 Return on capital employed ROCE Net

Business Proposal for custom shoe store called DECO HEELS Essay

Business Proposal for custom shoe store called DECO HEELS - Essay Example Currently, women are finding it difficult to get shoes of their choice because most of the stores are offering already designed shoes (Shaw and Onkvisit, 2008). Decor Heels will have an unmatched and extensive selection of high heel shoes for women. The model of the business is based on customer selection that will allow customers design their own high heels under the brand name of Decor Heels. Customers will be required to place an order and the company will make an invitation for the design of their selected high heel shoes (Moisander and Valtonen, 2006). The business aims a creating a competitive advantage in the first six months of operation through diverse selection. This will depend on the company’s management team especially the marketing team. It is the expectation of the business to capture at least 20 percent of market share and a profitability of more than $100,000 in the first three years of operation. 1.1 Success Factors There is one main success factor and that i s the ability of the business to enhance satisfaction for high heels among women. The business will achieve this by offering a wide selection of shoes as preferred by customers. 1.2 Business Objectives The objectives of the business are based on the first three years of operation and include: Establishing a retail store based on supplying high shoes that will satisfy customer needs beyond expectations Capturing 20 percent of the market share for female shoes by the unmet need for women to design high heel shoes Establishing a retail business that will grow on its financial performance 2.0 Business Description Decor Heels is a sole proprietorship business based in New York serving the unmet demand for customized high heel female shoes. The business aims at enhancing consumer satisfaction by offering the opportunity for customers to design their own high heel shoes under our brand name Decor Heels. Customers will be submitting their shoe design and the company will be making available the desired designs within a period of two days. Basically, Decor Heels will be keeping close contact with manufacturers and suppliers to ensure that the shoes are made available at the shortest time possible. In order to improve service delivery, the company will establish a total of ten retail stores at strategic locations within New York City and depending on its performance; the business will open more outlets in other cities within the first three years of operation. 3.0 Definition of the market 3.1 Industry Analysis The market for high heels is under the general market for shoes. Decor Heels is targeting the market for high heel shoes which has few market players. The market for high heel shoes is dominated by large departmental stores with other players including shoe-only stores and small retail stores. Departmental stores mainly sell everything with shoes being among their items for sale. They do not put their focus on shoes but all their products on sale. Shoe-only stores as the name suggests specialize in selling shoes only. Small retail stores engage in the sale of female shoes and clothes (Hill, 2011). 3.2 Market Segmentation The general market for female shoes has two population segments including female professionals and housewives. Professionals are defined by their responsibility of working on a full-time basis whereas

Aston Martin Crash Structure Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Aston Martin Crash Structure - Coursework Example Furthermore, it is required to be as light as possible in order to optimize the fuel economy and increase the car performance. An Aston Martin crash beam has had various designs over the years, and each of the designs has its drawbacks and benefits (Zhao, 2013). The adventure with the composite materials started in 1953 and has advanced. The composites have demonstrated reliability, fatigue resistance, lightweight, and easy moulding to any shape; the composites are attractive alternatives to metals. Despite their merits, there are minimal transfers from metals to the composites in the automotive industry (Startsev, Ponomareva and Anikhovskaya, 2013). For proper utilisation of the composites in crash beam manufacture, issue of: design, structural simulation, light-weighting, modelling, the crashworthiness, joining, manufacturing, repair, recycling and the new material concepts. Priorities in the manufacture of the crash beam include: The identification and addressing of the material r esearch, for composites, needs of the crash structure is required, and can be achieved via the new and improved concepts or technologies for the composite material for crash beam applications that lead to an increased utilisation of the composites and improved crash beam solutions (Startsev, Ponomareva and Anikhovskaya, 2013). The composite processing durations are lengthy, their raw materials, for example resins and fibres are relatively expensive, in addition, it not easy to achieve high quality object surface finishes.

In Egypt did the Arab Spring change gender roles and notions of where Essay

In Egypt did the Arab Spring change gender roles and notions of where women belonged in society Were women in Egypt better off before or after the Arab Spring - Essay Example Women’s rights in Islam-dominated nations have long been stifled by conventional Islamic culture which believes men should be in charge of women hence the press for women’s rights was a welcomed result of the Arab Spring revolts all through the Middle East and North Africa in ultra-traditional and Islam-dominated Egypt. From the protests, women hoped to gain from the altering relations of authority in society. That of course is a course that takes an extended amount of time to address (Ramdani 20-21) As the freethinking sought very much to drive forward for additional evident and more active roles for the female gender, some Islamist groups were not as keen about the notion of stirring in that path. It is without a doubt, there were unlike expectations on the roles played by women were to change due to the Arab Spring. In the present day, Egypt, the conventional patriarchal society is slowly fading without much of the democratic spirit of the Arab Spring. In its place, the thousands of females who contributed greatly to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak are now marginalized, if not ignored. Egypt has swapped a western-based, secular autocracy with an Islamic version, but for most the spot on headline figure was the trivial 12 seats for the female gender out of the possible 498. This translates into a 2.4% representation of women compared to the already low UN world average of 19%. All the 13 presidential race candidates were men (Ramdani 23-24) Women have, in general, been left out before and after the Arab Spring. In Egypt, it has been seen that the rights of women are all the time more under attack and violence against them on the rise. Women are to a less extent been involved in political parties and play an even smaller part in elections. The gap between women and men voting in Egypt has declined following the uprising. Currently, there are new worrying measures

Arthus Evans' contribution Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Arthus Evans' contribution - Essay Example This Minoan civilization became his contribution to stratigraphy-driven archaeology. The Crete excavations that had resulted in the discovery of the Minoan civilization had another essential contribution in store. Based on the Minoan civilization, Arthur Evans developed a relative dating scheme which he named Minoan chronology (MacGillivray 163). Arthur Evans had predominantly managed excavations at Knossos. For this reason, the Minoan chronology is purely attributed to him. This dating scheme would later be applied in Greek and the Cyclades Islands, thereby becoming a plan for dating prehistoric and early historic Aegean events (MacGillivray 174). Arthur Evans was the world-renowned British archaeologist who excavated the palace of Knossos on the Greek island of Crete and developed the theory of Minoan civilization (Roberts 156). He was born on July 8, 1851 and passed away on July 11, 1941. Throughout his academic career, Evans contributed a great number of precious works which include Cretan Pictographs and Pre-Phoenician Script (1895), The Mycenaean Tree and Pillar Cult (1901), and The Palace of Minos (1921-1936) (Karetsou 364). These works have produced significant influence on the development of archaeology particularly in the field of European and Mediterranean Sea area history (Karetsou 381). Panagiotaki (257) contends that Evans also contributed largely to the study of ancient language by defining Cretan scripts Linear A and Linear B. The findings of Evans laid a solid groundwork for later research and provided guidance for the further work on these areas. Evans was drawn to the field of ancient history due to both individual and social reasons. Evans was born in a highly educated and intellectual family. His grandfather was the Headmaster of Market Bosworth Grammar School and received a Master Degree in history. Arthur Evans’ father, John Evans, was capable of reading Latin which led him to large amounts of authoritative academic works

The Integrated Solution Limited using the criteria of HKMA quality award program Essay Example for Free

The Integrated Solution Limited using the criteria of HKMA quality award program Essay Q.1: The Integrated Solution Limited (ISL) is a specialist in providing professional quality I.T. solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in HK and southern China. There are several factors leading to the success of ISL today. The remarkable achievement of ISL started with its founder and Managing Director, Dr. Ricky LEUNG. Dr. LEUNG personally had in-depth understanding of the needs of manufactures in HK. He recognised that most of imported packages did not provide enough management information to them and no foreign vendors provided MRP system in HK. That is the gap where ISL successfully comes in. With the strong commitment from Dr. LEUNG, ISL has laid down a companys motto ISL is to build quality people, products and relationships and a mission statement ISL is to provide quality products and services towards better data integration and information management for manufacturers that strive to provide excellent products and services to its customers. In this connection, ISL has been very active in improving its products and services through continuous research, service quality improvements, and the changing needs and requirements of customers. Q2: The remarkable achievement of ISL shows once again that producing world-class quality is ultimately a matter of the heart more than the mind It is companies with such emotional pride in their products and with such heroic hopes for their customers that set the quality standards in every industry around the world said by Larry Farrel of the Farrel Company. Quality management has played a significant role in ISLs success. As mentioned previously, ISL has always commits to become the leader in providing professional quality I.T. solutions for SMEs in Asia Pacific. Quality management has always been their main focus in strategic planning, market positioning, and nearly every aspects. ISLs efforts in quality management has lets them successfully to built up an image of a total solution company with prestige quality, as the leading supplier of manufacturing software in Hong Kong by successfully differentiate it from its competitors, and is fast to become Hong Kongs showpiece in innovation and quality. Actually, Total Quality Management is a strategic weapon, which includes a broad set of processes, which helps ISL to enhance its competitive advantages. It is a basic belief that each day it can become better and that all employees are infected with the enthusiasm and religion of improvement. Thus, it accelerates the continuous improvement in products and services, and overall organizational performance. It also helps to develop a Roadmap to business excellence which has attained significantly higher performance levels, therefore, driven to their overall success. Q3: By applying and receiving the HKMA Award, ISL has achieved the following benefits: 1) Gain Competitive Advantage Sound Reputation Successfully Differentiate from its Competitors: ISL received the HKMA award in 1994 for its dedication to quality improvement and customer services. This awards brings the company public recognition for having achieved outstanding standards of quality and for having make a lasting commitment to the process of quality management. Thus, ISL is able to gain many competitive advantages that lead to its success in the IT industry. It not only helps ISL to successfully differentiate from its competitors, but also accelerates the continuous improvement, and gaining prestige reputation from the market. 2) Professional Productive Work Force by Empowerment, Teamwork, Recognition Training : Being a successful company, human resources, is definitely one of the most valuable resources.. ISL understands that keeping the staff growth means keeping the company growth. So, the Human resources development is also one of the focuses in companys strategic planning. As quality management lets ISL to realize the important of empowerment and teamwork, therefore, when ISL recruits new employee, they will measure their ability of teamwork, potential for growth and quality awareness instead of measuring their technical skill only. For the existing employee, ISL also encourage for their involvement. For example, they will have a regular meeting where all employees are welcome to give their own suggestion and opinions. Moreover, the company always tries to strengthen staffs technical skill and quality awareness through various training or seminar from outside experts. Furthermore, the company also empowers the employee and gives special awards to well-performed staff in order to enhance the employee satisfaction. All these efforts helps ISL to achieve outstanding operational results, such as improve in punctuality, reduce absenteeism due to sickness, lower staff turnover rate, faster technical support response time, better trainer quality, higher maintenance incomes, and faster invoice processing time, etc. 3) Clear Strategic Planning and Leadership : By applying and receiving the HKMA awards, ISL has benefits from a very clear strategic planning and leadership. It lets Dr. Leung, the company leader, to aware of the importance of quality, but also pushes him to make some changes in ISL in order to enforce the quality enhancement, such as restructured the company units to a supportive organization structure, and to form a Quality Committee from senior management to co-ordinate and organize quality efforts. Moreover, the HKMA award program ensures ISL to have a very clear goal in quality and performance. For example, at the beginning of each year, ISL undergoes an annual Extensive Strategic Planning Process to plan for the goal and the actions of the current year base on the customer and staff satisfaction and economic factors. It helps ISL to continuously improving in its quality of services and products and leads to its success. 4) Enhance Customer Satisfaction by Customer Focus : ISL has realized that customer satisfaction and a good reputation for quality are vital to the companys survival. Therefore, it uses many marketing tools such as Product Life Cycle (PLC), Product Space Map and GAP analysis to determine market opportunities, segmentation, moving trends and the market position of its product. It helps ISL to be more efficient and be able to continue to understand more about its customers needs and requirements and improve its product and services in order to improve its market position. For example, the amount of repeat sales has grow from 4% to 23% of the total sales from 1992 to 1994. This rapid grow in repeat sales demonstrates that the customer satisfaction of ISL has been improved, and there is pro-active account management and development of long-term relationships with customers in ISL. 5) Profit Maximization and Cost Efficiency : Quality management also benefits ISL financially by maximizing its profits and lets it spends its cost more efficiency. During the eight years before the company applied for the HKMA award, ISLs annual sales grow rapidly. For example, the annual growth rates were 50% or above throughout the period from 1987 to 1994. Besides that, since the company embarked on the TQM programme, profitability has also improved. Moreover, the improvement in various aspects, such as the production process, lets ISL to spend its cost more efficiency. 6) Accelerate Continuous Improvement : The HKMA helps to accelerate the improvement efforts. It helped to set a pace for the quality improvement efforts. It created an accountability that moved the organization faster and further than it could have done on their own. For example, concerning the product improvements, ISL is constantly upgrading it products and services. It also has to keep up its product development programme in order to maintain its competitiveness in the marketplace. Besides that, it also engaged in improving the quality of its internal operations in order to improve in its process. These help to demonstrate ISLs efforts to accelerate its improvement continuously. Q.4: The strengths and weaknesses of ISL in the current competitive environment are as follows: 1) Leadership : * Dr. LEUNG has strongly commitment in promoting quality/products to the industry and to the ISL. For the industry, seminars and articles on Quality Management given by Dr. LEUNG not only educate the public, but also act as outside pressure to push ISL to improve its quality. For the company, he has laid down a companys motto and mission statement stressing on quality products/services to its customers. * Furthermore, a quality committee chaired by Dr. LEUNG has been established to co-ordinate company-wide efforts on quality improvement. The terms of reference for the committee are specified, which includes setting up companys quality standards, developing long- to short-term quality plans, monitoring quality implementation progresses, tackling customer issues, and so froth. * ISL in 1994 established a 3 levels supportive organization structure including front line staff, managers and top management. This organizational structure provides a supportive skeleton from one level to another so as to facilitate the performance of subordinates. ISL also formed the RD Department focusing on product direction and acting as the catalyst for quality improvement. ? Although Dr. LEUNG from time-to-time participates in public activities, ISL itself and other senior staff have not paid much attention to address their public responsibilities and citizenship. 2) Strategy Planning : * To improve product/services quality, ISL has introduced an annual Extensive Strategic Planning Process. At the beginning of each year, the Quality Committee meets externally to examine customer satisfaction and review/access impacts from environmental factors, and internally to motive and satisfy ISL staff and minimize waste and unproductive work. ISL also has set up 5 quality and performance goals, including Product Leadership, Quality Leadership, Consultancy, Implementation and Technical Support. ? Human resources plan has not considered. Key performance indicators are also not considered for tracking the progress of action plan, not to say projecting organizations future performance. 3) Customer and Market Focus : * ISL has adopted a number of marketing tools such as Product Life Cycle, Product Space Map and Gap analysis to determine market opportunities, segmentation, trends and the market position of its product. To collect information from customers, departments of TS and Sales Marketing have constantly contact and visits their customers with the aim to explore possible areas for improving its products and services. ? Mechanism has not formulated to handle customers complaints promptly and effectively. ISL should group all complaints together and analyze it for further improvement. Moreover, ISL should obtain and analyze information and customer satisfaction about their competitors for benchmarks. 4) Information and Analysis : * ISL has introduced an integrated management system, PURSUIT, for its operational processes. A SQL tool, FLEXQL is employed to extract data to generate ad-hoc or routine management reports for the departments of Sales, TS and RD. To effectively use the data, the management adopt the concept of Management-By-Facts and, wherever practicable, make decisions on a factual basis. * Key performance has been constantly communicated to ISL staff, its customers and suppliers via a wide range of communication channels; Internally ISL rely on weekly colloquium, monthly staff newsletter, departmental meetings, annual report, display boards and emails, while externally they rely on user newsletters, press releases, customer visits and customer surveys. ? A system for ensuring the accuracy, reliability and security of data and information has not in place. 5) Human Resource Focus : * The management of ISL in 1994 recognized that exchanges of experience and information among staff and managers were informal, and tasks and functions were mainly performed by a single person. In this regard, ISL has introduced a daily Japanese-style morning meeting for reporting work progress, planning of the schedule, seeking assistance from colleagues with relevant experience, and presenting a topic by members on a rotation basis with assessment. Besides, ISL launches a program, Quality in Action (QIA), which based on facts and data and empowered its staff to respond quickly to customer needs. * All suitable candidates have had at least 2 interviews to judge their competence in interpersonal skills, quality awareness, and so on forth. In addition, TS and the 3D development departments have a work rotation scheme to ensure that everyone receives a mix of job functions. * ISL provides a company colloquium with attendance of all staff on every Friday morning for brainstorming, team building and training of theories, concepts and tools in quality management. Departmental meeting is another place where customer and operational issues can be resolved. Group sessions are also organized for sharing experiences and new ideas. * ISL sends staff to external training courses and provides an annual HK$6,000 education allowance to each employee for job-related external training courses. * ISL has put a system in place to maintain a high level of staff morale. The system consists of communicating changes with feedback, making use the companys supportive organizational structure, coordinating with top managements direction, and providing counseling and mediation. ISL also has a Social Welfare Committee responsible for organization of key annual events. Furthermore, the company put a smoke-free working environment policy in force. * Three front line departments have its own incentive scheme. Employees have an annual appraisal to determine their pay. Special awards would be given to those who have exceptional performance. ? ISL not places much attention on providing assessment methods or measures, like upward appraisal, to determine employees well-being and satisfaction. The company shall also consider formulating a system to ensure safety and health of employees at work. 6) Process Management : * ISL emphasizes the quality of its development process. All software projects are headed by senior software staff and developed in accordance with a software engineering cycle. Moreover, ISL follows the best practice guidelines in the industry by allocating sufficient time and effort for System Analysis and Final Testing stages. To meet customers special needs, ISD also offers a tailor-made software service and develops User Manuals, Technical Manuals, Implementation Guide, and Training Notes Exercises, and provides Customer Training Programme and Implementation Consultancy Services. * To promulgate continuous improvement, ISL regularly upgrades its products and services based on the feedback from listening to customers, getting in touch with the marketplace, and valuing input from staff. * ISL acts as a value-added reseller by organizing marketing and education event, meeting with vendors, and dealing of hardware purchases. 7) Business Results : * ISL has established a series of services and indicators to focus on customers; Firstly, hotline support logging system has been introduced to gauge the performance of technical hotline support. Secondly, ISL offers a one-day training programme to its customers. Trainees request to evaluate and give feedback for the effectiveness of programme. Thirdly, ISL measures the percentage of purchasing maintenance service and maintenance income to reflect the satisfaction of customers. Finally, ISL conducts full-scale customer satisfaction survey to assess the strengths and weakness of its operation. * ISL tracks its annual sales, profitability, amount of repeat sales and number of installation sites to measure the results of company and quality and customer satisfactions of customers. * ISL measures punctuality, absenteeism, staff turnover rate to evaluate staff morale and work attitude. All these indicators move positively since its inception. ? Although ISL has successfully boosted its sales revenue by 50% annually from 87 to 94 with exception of 93, the net profit margin does not grow as much as the sales revenue. It also noticed that the percentage of increment of the sales revenue has been declined from 95 to 97, as compared with the annual growth from 87 to 94. Q. 5: With the limitation of resources available to ISL, we are of a view that ISL should concrete their efforts to target on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in both Hong Kong and southern China. ISL should modify its existing products to suit the special needs of the largest manufacturing sectors in Hong Kong and southern China. (i.e.: Toys, Garment, and Electronic Industries.) 1) Products : Looking ahead, the following products should be provided by ISL to its client. As there is a growing trend for user-friendly software, a new software system with Window/Novell/Web-based application will become a potential product of ISL. In addition, with the growing connection between Mainland China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, industrial undertakings headquartered in Hong Kong and with manufacturing plants scattered in Mainland China are on the increase. Coupled with this growth, there is an increasing need for such undertaking having an integrated computer system. Development of an effective communication system that facilitates the connection and communication between offices at different locations will be a potential product for ISL. Furthermore, ISL should explore the feasibility of developing an ERP and Global supply chain management software in collaboration with QAD. As QAD has experience in developing such product, it may reduce the product development time and help ISL stay in the forefront and keep in pace with the logistics business proposed in Hong Kong. 2) Services : On top of its current services, ISL should provide free software to academic institutions for education and promotion purposes. ISL may also provide free-trial software with limited effective date and authority to potential customers and existing customers for evaluation and promotion purposes. Besides that, ISL may regularly organize free training courses to their potential users or customers. Q. 6: As more and more aggressive competitors (e.g. SAP, MPIX, Minx Symix) have launched their businesses in Hong Kong and China, ISL should consider the following actions to further improve their quality or services to its customers. Firstly, it should pursue China market by more empowerment and participating in joint venture or co-operation programmes with China firms. It helps ISL increase/improve its cash flow, distribution channel and technology. Secondly, it should further improve their software systems in order to maintain their market position. It is noteworthy that some features / functions of ISLs software systems are far from satisfactory as compared with similar products offered by their competitors. The limited power of Envision is a good illustration of this. Thirdly, by means of joint venture, ISL should exchange their technical skill with foreign companies. It also allows ISL to exchange its stock shares with various companies for improving cash flow within the company. Fourthly, in addition to its cooperation programmes with the City University of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Productivity Council, ISL shall extend it to various Universities in China. As these institutions have first-hand and in-depth understanding of the needs in China, such cooperation programmes not only help ISL develop its products but also can be their executive arms to disturb new software systems to China. Finally, ISL should set up a website to introduce their company background and new products to all visitors (potential customers) and existing customers. It can also build up FAQ (Frequently asked Questions) to help existing customers to solve common problems. Moreover, as a means of advertising, it can let more people to recognize ISL throughout the world.

Explain the ethical significance of the Sermon Essay Example for Free

Explain the ethical significance of the Sermon Essay The Sermon on the Mount is one of the key sections of the New Testament, in which Jesus builds upon the Decalogue to form the first blueprint of Christian ethics. Jesus was preaching in direct contrast to the Greek philosophy of stoicism, which sought to separate man from his emotions. Emotions, especially love, feature heavily in the Sermon on the Mount. It remains ethically relevant over 2000 years later for many reasons, the first of which is the underlying principles behind it. Jesus did not come to abolish Old Testament law, but to fulfil it. The Jews were trapped in a system of harsh legalism, where obedience was motivated by fear rather than love. The Pharisees made a grand display of holiness by keeping the law, but the Sermon on the Mount teaches that their hearts were empty. Jesus built on the Ten Commandments to create a system ruled by mercy, love and dedication to God. Even if the culture changes the basic ethical principles behind the sermon do not change. It is a moral code that focusses as much on inward moral disposition as it does our external actions: Jenkins wrote, â€Å"inner attention and attitude is crucial. † Even if a typically good action is performed with sinful thought then it becomes immoral. The most important thing to realise about the Sermon on the Mount is that it is impossible for anyone to keep it completely, as it demands perfection. Although they will never be free from sin in this life, Christians use the sermon in order to try and become more like Jesus, who was perfect. The Sermon is all about Christian sanctification. Jesus speaks not only on what Christians should do to be moral, but he also explains why it is important to be ethical in the first place. He states that Christians are the salt and light of the world. Salt is significant because it represents purity, preservation and flavour. Therefore we understand that Christians should maintain a good ethical code in order to set an example to society and to preserve it from total corruption. The image of the light is also key: in the Bible light always symbolises joy and blessing. A light is visible to all, and so the Christian should seek to make Christ visible to all through their actions. A light is also a warning, representing the Christian’s duty to lovingly warn their fellow-men about their sin. Further on in the Sermon Jesus admonishes that, â€Å"If the light then within you is darkness, how great is that darkness! † Furthermore, the Sermon on the Mount gives many specific examples of Christian ethics, the first of which is regarding murder. Jesus equates anger to murder, and speaks of the fires of hell. This is contrary to the contemporary universalist view of Jesus and his death which has led some scholars to claim that when he speaks of hell it is merely metaphorical. Regardless, Jesus is affirming that you cannot be right with God until you are right with your fellow men, which all relates to the salt-and-light reputation of a Christian. Jesus also teaches about adultery and sexual morality. Again he equates the inward sin of lust to the outward sin of adultery. He also declares that marrying a divorced woman counts as adultery, a part of the Sermon that even Christians have begun to disregard. This is contrary to the Old Testament where Moses permitted – but did not command – divorce due to the hard heartedness of the people. The close relationship between a husband and wife mirrors the relationship Christ shares with his Church, which is why sex features so highly in Christian ethics. Love, when fully understood. Is opening oneself to another completely and can succeed only where trust and fidelity are present. Subsequently, another part of the Sermon on the Mount that is ethically significant would be where Jesus deals with how we should relate to other people. The standards set by Jesus are so high it is easy for Christians to look down upon those that are struggling. Jesus, ever a carpenter’s son, uses the metaphor of the speck in your brother’s eye and the plank in your own. We are all sinners and it would be highly hypocritical to judge another when we are also flawed. We never know the whole story about someone and it is impossible to be impartial in our judgement. The Jews were familiar with the concept of loving your neighbour and not judging him, but they did not feel the same about their enemies. Jesus commanded us to show agape love towards our enemies. Such love does not naturally come from the heart, but is instead must be put into action through one’s own will. As Jesus was merciful and forgiving to sinners, so we should be. This is vital to Christian ethics. Another ethical aspect of how we relate to other people is how we treat those who are poorer than us. It is not enough to simply preach to them, but we must take care of their physical needs as well as spiritual. Jesus said, â€Å"Give to him who asks of you, and do not turn away from him who wants to borrow from you. † Charitable giving was a fundamental part of Jewish life, but Jesus added another element: it was only ethical if done with the correct motivation. The Greek word translated as hypocrite in the Bible literally means ‘actor’. This is why Jesus commands us to give in secret, lest we become boastful. Moreover, there is a definite eschatological aspect to the Sermon on the Mount as it draws to a conclusion. This emphasises to the Christian how their ethics are eternally significant and will be considered on the Day of Judgement. Jesus states that few will enter the Kingdom of Heaven and that not all that profess to believe in him as Lord will be saved. He warns of false prophets who will come in sheep’s clothing; in this situation the ethics presented in the Sermon on the Mount are vital so a Christian can identify who is a true believer. We are not saved by works, but they are an important part of our Christian identity. The Sermon on the Mount also has certain evangelical tones throughout. It shows the unbeliever what is required of them if they follow Jesus, and the severe consequences if they do not. Spurgeon wrote of this passage, â€Å"The shepherd best discerns his own sheep, and the Lord, Himself alone knows infallibly them who are His. † To conclude, there are conflicting theories regarding the nature of the Sermon – certain theologians such as Calvin believe it is a compilation of many separate sermons. Others debate technical details, such as whether it was preached on a mount or a plain. However, something that every Christian will agree on is that the Sermon on the Mount is of the upmost important as a foundation for Christian ethics. Stott said, â€Å"The Sermon on the Mount is probably the best-known part of the teaching of Jesus, thought arguably it is the least understood, and certainly it is the least obeyed. †

Trials And Triumphs Of Inner City Students Social Work Essay

Trials And Triumphs Of Inner City Students Social Work Essay The book, And Still We Rise: The Trials and Triumphs of Twelve Gifted Inner-City Students, offers valuable insight into the lives of inner-city youth in Los Angeles and throughout the country. Inner-city students are frequently subjected to poverty, violence, gangs, and drugs in their schools, homes, and communities. Yet, many of these students manage to survive and thrive despite their volatile environment. The book provides school social workers with a unique opportunity to understand the challenges presented to inner-city students, and the power of resilience to overcome adversity. Let us now examine how various psychosocial and environmental factors contributed to the development and success of the students discussed in the book. Developmental Tasks, Systems, and Resilience Adolescence is arguably one of the most difficult and challenging stages of development for an individual. It is a time of great social, psychological, emotional, and academic growth that poses many challenges for youth surrounding identity, self-esteem, and self-efficacy (Zastrow Kirst-Ashman, 2007). According to Eriksons psychosocial theory of development, adolescence is a time of exploration and experimentation in relation to peers and social roles in order to establish a sense of identity (Zastrow Kirst-Ashman, 2007). The students in the book are each facing various identity challenges and demands within their environment. They are exposed to gangs, drugs, poverty, and teen pregnancy in their everyday lives, and they must each make the difficult decision of who to be and how to reconcile various role demands. Sadi, for example, had to make the difficult decision of whether to maintain his gang lifestyle which provided a sense of power, protection, and family for him or to explo re his intellectual abilities as a student in school. Fortunately, with encouragement from Ms. Little and Mr. Braxton, Sadi chose to join a different kind of family, one that offered promise and hope through academic achievement. The students in the book are also charged with the task of navigating various systems within their environment that impact their lives. On a mezzo level, the students interact with family, teachers, social workers, foster and group homes, and gangs. On a macro level, the students interact with the school, community, social services, and the judicial system. Unfortunately, the students in the book are negatively impacted by a number of these systems. Many of the students lack adequate support at home and are forced to work in order to survive. Some students have been neglected or abandoned by their families and are forced to navigate a cruel and unjust world alone. The students are also exposed to violence and poverty within the community and frequently suffer retribution from the judicial system. Additionally, the social service system did not always adequately address the needs of the students. For many of the students, their only sanctuary was school, a place where they felt welcom ed, supported, encouraged, and cared for. The students in the book survived due to their resiliency. Each student possessed the inner strength, power, and motivation to overcome obstacles in their environment and to thrive in the face of adversity. The incredible power of resiliency allowed the students to maintain focus and motivation despite negative environmental factors. Their resiliency coupled with the support and encouragement of administrators and teachers within the school allowed the students to exceed expectations and claim futures full of hope and promise for a better life through education. Let us now examine how the challenges of adolescence, systems in the environment, and resilience shaped the life of one inner city student. Olivias Story Olivias story provides a unique perspective on the various difficulties encountered in relation to systems in the environment, and how the power of resilience provides motivation and drive to survive and beat the odds despite numerous obstacles. Olivia was affected by various mezzo and macro level factors throughout her childhood. On a mezzo level, Olivias interactions with her mother, social workers, and various foster and group homes shaped her life. Olivia was physically and emotionally abused and neglected by her mother, and abandoned by her father. At the age of twelve she entered the world of social services, and began her journey through various foster and group homes that provided little to no financial or emotional support. Olivias social worker did not provide her with adequate resources and support either, and Olivia was forced to take matters into her own hands and support herself by working a number of jobs, many of which were inappropriate, dangerous, and illegal. From a macro level perspective, Olivias encounters with the teachers and administrators at Crenshaw High School, the social service system, and the judicial system significantly influenced her life as well. At a time of chaos and uncertainty in her life, school was her only reprieve. It was the only place she felt wanted, needed, and loved. School also provided her the opportunity to show her true potential in the gifted magnet program. Olivia received the support and encouragement she needed at school from Ms. Little and Mr. Braxton, who served as her pseudo parents and family. They provided her with the guidance, nurturance, and impetus she needed to reach her academic potential. Unfortunately, Olivia was underserved by the social service and judicial system. She was in the social service system for many years and was never provided the adequate resources and support she needed to survive. As a result, Olivia was forced to seek alternate illegal sources of support that ultimately l anded her jail. If Olivia had been given adequate resources and support from the social service system she would not have had to engage in illegal activities to survive. In this sense, the judicial system was reactive as opposed to proactive with Olivia. For many years, she tried to navigate her way through an unforgiving system trying to attain assistance. Ironically, it was not until she committed a crime that she finally had access to the resources and support she desperately needed throughout her childhood. Fortunately, despite all the hardships Olivia endured throughout her childhood she did not let the social service or judicial system prevent her from attaining her dream of attending Babson College. Her incredible sense of resiliency and drive for a better life helped her to stay positive and maintain focus despite the many obstacles she encountered. Olivia always knew she would prevail, and in the end she did! She relied on the strength and perseverance she had used to overc ome past obstacles to achieve the dream that had almost been stolen from her. Her story is a source of inspiration for inner-city students throughout the world, and proves that childhood experiences and environmental systems may influence, but do not define, an individual. Lessons for a Future School Social Worker The book provided me with valuable insight into the lives of inner-city students. Prior to reading the book, I was unaware of the various obstacles many inner-city students face in their everyday lives. I now have a new understanding of how various systems in the environment negatively and positively influence students, and how I might be able to assist students in navigating many of these systems as a school social worker. The book also helped me realize how important it is for students to have access to adequate resources and support for optimal psychological, social, and academic development. The book also highlighted the relevant role school teachers and administrators have in impacting students lives, and how important it is for social workers to work collaboratively with school staff to ensure that students needs are being met. On a positive note, I have learned that inner-city students have incredible potential and that as a school social worker I will play a vital role in ide ntifying and addressing obstacles, providing resources and support, and serving as an advocate and coach to help students reach their full potential. I can, and will, make a difference in the lives of the students I work with! J

Designing an Automatic Air Freshener Robot :: Robotics

The Automatic Air Freshener Our project idea is to create an automatic air freshener robot. This robot will follow a path created by colored tape along a board to a holder with a piece of pH paper and liquids with varying pH levels. After the paper is dipped into the liquid and the color changes, the robot will detect what color it is and respond accordingly. If the odor is â€Å"foul†, it will choose to spray the air freshener. The only thing it will be programmed to do is to detect the â€Å"foul odor† and to spray the air freshener, because that is its only purpose. Smell. One of our five senses. It's used everyday to help us gain a better understanding of our surroundings. But how does it work? Olfaction, or smell, is the detection of chemicals in our surroundings. For humans, odors are processed in our olfactory epithelium. We have thousands of genes that act as odor receptors. Each of these genes act as a lock, with the odor molecules acting as the key. When the correct odor molecule fits into the olfactory receptor neuron, a signal is sent to our brain, allowing it to determine whether the odor is pleasant or repulsive. In order to remove the foul odor, our robot will employ air fresheners. Many air fresheners use extracts from plants, fruits, and flowers. While the history of perfume dates back millenia to the Ancient Egyptians, many modern-day armoatics are produced synthetically in a lab. There are many different kinds on the market. One type of advanced air freshener works like a charcoal or pollen filter. They filter out of the air all the foul smelling particles. Other types of air freshener can absorb the odor molecules. Also, some disinfect by killing bacteria and germs that sometimes cause the bad odors. However, most air fresheners use masking, introducing a stronger fragrance that humans find favorable, masking out the unpleasant smells. For our project, we will be using the type of air freshener that masks the smell. For our project, we were going to put together a robot that would be able to detect such bad odors and to spray air freshener in the general area, thus masking the unwanted smell. Currently, there is no product on the market that does such a job. However, there is one product that can detect bad smells and report the data to the user. It is a halitosis detector made by the Japanese company Tanita called Fresh Kiss (Tsunoda). It analyzes gas in ones mouth using a gas

The God Of Small Things by Arundhati Roy Essay -- God Small Things Aru

The God Of Small Things by Arundhati Roy Before going into the theatre â€Å"to see The Sound of Music for the third time† (35), Estha â€Å"[completes] his first adult assignment† (93). He goes to the bathroom on his own, while Ammu, Baby and Rahel accompany each other to the ladies room. This little detail about going to use the restroom foreshadows another instance where Estha will be forced from being a child into manhood. Ammu tells Estha to â€Å"shut UP!!† (96) because he was singing along to the words of the movies. Instead of shutting up, he leaves the theatre on his own account, because â€Å"he couldn’t help† (96) but sing along to the words he knew. After completing his first adult assignment, his childlikeness comes out in having to sing the lyrics in â€Å"a nun’s voice† (96). He did not know that this act of immaturity, in acting his own age, he would be shoved into yet another adult assignment, something that he kept as a small thing, but ended up as a Big Thing inside him. The Orangedrink Lemondrink Man scolded Estha for â€Å"[disturbing]† (97) him with his song. As soon as he is done scolding him, his â€Å"yellow piano key† (97) teeth offered him a free drink. As Estha came, the Orangedrink Lemondrink Man already knew what he had in store for Estha. The Man asked him questions, and Estha, being a man and a child, had to answer. Where did he live? What did his family do? The Man â€Å"handed Estha his penis† (98) and made Estha masturbate him while he drank his lemon drink, and he had to, because the Man â€Å"knew where to find [him]† (104). After the Man was done with Estha, he sent him back into the theatre. Estha knew from this time that he would be love a little less if anyone knew what he had done with the Orangedrink Lemondrink Man. So he told no one. But in his head, a conversation was taking place between himself and Baron von Trapp, the father in The Sound of Music. Would von Trapp love him even though he was not white? Even though he â€Å"[blew] spit bubbles†¦[shivered] his legs†¦ held a strangers’ soo-soos?† (101). Was he still acceptable to obtain a Baba’s love? He knew that it was â€Å"out of the question. [He could not] love them† (102). No father could ever love him. They leave the theatre because Estha the child, Estha the man, is sick. When they exit the theatre, the Orangedrink Lemondrink Man smiles at Rahel and offers her candy. She goes toward him, and is... ...lowing it to be made into another myth or to be erased by the present. The time was â€Å"painted† on to the wrist-watch that was buried under the History House. When that watch was left to become one with the grass and the dirt, it captured many things. It made time stand still. It took away the desire to speak. This affected Ammu and Estha in everlasting ways. Ammu went mad before she died. Ammu treated Rahel as though she were still seven, when she was actually eleven, saying, â€Å"It was as though [she] believed that if she refused to acknowledge the passage of time, if she willed it to stand still in the lives or her twins, it would† (152). Estha changed dramatically as well. When â€Å"childhood tiptoed out† and â€Å"silence slid in like a bolt† (303), they went to where the watch was, buried with Ammu’s mind. In the ground of the History house, the time would remain at â€Å"ten to two† (121). Ten to two; two small people against ten big people. Rahel and Estha â€Å"trapped in†¦ a story† (224) against Mamachi, Baby, Chacko, Margret, Sophie, Ammu, Velutha, Kochu Maria, Pillai, and the Orangedrink Lemondrink Man. Ten. Ten to Two. Where the God of Small Things, â€Å"if he fought he couldn’t win† (207).

Simple Linear Regression

Simple linear regression is the statistic method used to make summary of and provide the association between variables that are continues and quantitative ,basically it deals with two measures that describes how strong the linear relationship we can compute in data .Simple linear regression consist of one variable known as the predictor variable and the other variable denote y known as response variable . It is expected that when we talk of simple linear regression to touch on deterministic relationship and statistical relationship, the concept of least mean square .the interpretation of the b0 and b1 that they are used to interpret the estimate regression . There is also what is known as the population regression line and the estimate regression line . This linearity is measured using the correlation coefficient (r), that can be -1,0,1.The strength of the association is determined from the value of r .( https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat501/node/250). History of simple linear regression Karl Pearson established a demanding treatment of Applied statistical measure known as Pearson Product Moment Correlation . This come from the thought of Sir Francis Galton ,who had the idea of the modern notions of correlation and regression ,Sir Galton contributed in science of Biology ,psychology and Applied statistics . It was seen that Sir Galton is fascinated with genetics and heredity provided the initial inspiration that led to regression and Pearson Product Moment Correlation . The thought that encouraged the advance of the Pearson Product Moment Correlation began with vexing problem of heredity to understand how closely features of generation of living things exhibited in the next generation. Sir Galton took the approach of using the sweet pea to check the characteristic similarities. ( Bravais, A. (1846). The use of sweet pea was motivated by the fact that it is self- fertilize ,daughter plants shows differences in genetics from mother with-out the use of the second parent that will lead to statistical problem of assessing the genetic combination for both parents .The first insight came about regression came from two dimensional diagram plotting the size independent being the mother peas and the dependent being the daughter peas. He used this representation of data to show what statisticians call it regression today ,from his plot he realised that the median weight of daughter seeds from a particular size of mother seed approximately described a straight line with positive slope less than 1. â€Å"Thus he naturally reached a straight regression line ,and the constant variability for all arrays of character for a given character of second .It was ,perhaps best for the progress of the correlational calculus that this simple special case should promulgated first .It so simply grabbed by the beginner (Pearson 1930,p.5). Then it was later generalised to more complex way that is called the multiple regression. Galton, F. (1894),Importance of linear regressionStatistics usually uses the term linear regression in interpretation of data association of a particular survey, research and experiment .The linear relationship is used in modelling .The modelling of one explanatory variable x and response variable y will require the use of simple linear regression approach . The simple linear regression is said to be broadly useful in methodology and the practical application. This method on simple linear regression model is not used in statistics only but it is applied in many biological, social science and environmental research. The simple linear regression is worth importance because it gives indication of what is to be expected, mostly in monitoring and amendable purposes involved on some disciplines(April 20, 2011 , plaza ,). Description of linear regression The simple linear regression model is described by Y=(?0 + ?1 +E), this is the mathematical way of showing the simple linear regression with labelled x and y .This equation gives us a clear idea on how x is associated to y, there is also an error term shown by E. The term E is used to justification for inconsistency in y, that we can be able to detect it by the use of linear regression to give us the amount of association of the two variables x and y . Then we have the parameters that are use to represent the population (?0 + ?1x) .We then have the model given by E(y)= (?0 + ?1x), the ?0 being the intercept and ?1 being the slope of y ,the mean of y at the x values is E(y) . The hypothesis is assumed is we assume that there is a linear association between the two variables ,that being our H0 and H1 we assume that there is no linear relationship between H0 and H1. Background of simple linear regression Galton used descriptive statistics in order for him to be able to generalise his work of different heredity problems . The needed opportunity to conclude the process of analysing these data, he realised that if the degree of association between variables was held constant,then the slope of the regression line could be described if variability of the two measure were known . Galton assumed he estimated a single heredity constant that was generalised to multiple inherited characteristics . He was wondering why, if such a constant existed ,the observed slopes in the plot of parent child varied too much over these characteristics .He realise variation in variability amongst the generations, he attained at the idea that the variation in regression slope he obtained were solely due to variation in variability between the various set of measurements . In resent terms ,the principal this principal can be illustrated by assuming a constant correlation coefficient but varying the standard deviations of the two variables involved . On his plot he found out that the correlation in each data set. He then observe three data sets ,on data set one he realised that the standard deviation of Y is the same as that of X , on data set two standard deviation of Y is less than that of X ,third data set standard deviation of Y is great than that of X . The correlation remain constant for three sets of data even though the slope of the line changes as an outcome of the differences in variability between the two variables.The rudimentary regression equation y=r(Sy / Sx)x to describe the relationship between his paired variables .He the used an estimated value of r , because he had no knowledge of calculating it The (Sy /Sx) expression was a correction factor that helped to adjust the slope according to the variability of measures . He also realised that the ratio of variability of the two measures was the key factor in determining the slope of the regression line .The uses of simple linear regression Simple linear regression is a typical Statistical Data Analysis strategy. It is utilized to decide the degree to which there is a direct connection between a needy variable and at least one free factors. (e.g. 0-100 test score) and the free variable(s) can be estimated on either an all out (e.g. male versus female) or consistent estimation scale. There are a few different suppositions that the information must full fill keeping in mind the end goal to meet all requirements for simple linear regression. Basic linear regression is like connection in that the reason for existing is to scale to what degree there is a direct connection between two factors. The real contrast between the two is that relationship sees no difference amongst the two variables . Specifically, the reason for simple linear regression â€Å"anticipate† the estimation of the reliant variable in light of the estimations of at least one free factors. https://www.statisticallysignificantconsulting.com/RegressionAnalysis.htm ReferenceBravais, A. (1846), â€Å"Analyse Mathematique sur les Probabilites des Erreurs de Situation d'un Point,† Memoires par divers Savans, 9, 255-332.Duke, J. D. (1978),â€Å"Tables to Help Students Grasp Size Differences in Simple Correlations,† Teaching of Psychology, 5, 219-221.FitzPatrick, P. J. (1960),â€Å"Leading British Statisticians of the Nineteenth Century,† Journal of the American Statistical Association, 55, 38-70.Galton, F. (1894),Natural Inheritance (5th ed.), New York: Macmillan and Company.https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat501/node/250.https://www.statisticallysignificantconsulting.com/RegressionAnalysis.htmGhiselli, E. E. (1981),Measurement Theory for the Behavioral Sciences, San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.Goldstein, M. D., and Strube, M. J. (1995), â€Å"Understanding Correlations: Two Computer Exercises,† Teaching of Psychology, 22, 205-206.Karylowski, J. (1985),â€Å"Regression Toward the Mean Effect: No Statistical Backgrou nd Required,† Teaching of Psychology, 12, 229-230.Paul, D. B. (1995),Controlling Human Heredity, 1865 to the Present, Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Humanities Press.Pearson, E. S. (1938),Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis (2nd ed.), Belmont, CA: Duxbury.Pearson, K. (1896),â€Å"Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution. III. Regression, Heredity and Panmixia,† Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 187, 253-318.Pearson, K. (1922),Francis Galton: A Centenary Appreciation, Cambridge University Press.Pearson, K. (1930),The Life, Letters and Labors of Francis Galton, Cambridge University Press.Williams, R. H. (1975), â€Å"A New Method for Teaching Multiple Regression to Behavioral Science Students,† Teaching of Psychology, 2, 76-78. Simple Linear Regression Stat 326 – Introduction to Business Statistics II Review – Stat 226 Spring 2013 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 1 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 2 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression Example: Real Estate, Tampa Palms, Florida Goal: Predict sale price of residential property based on the appraised value of the property Data: sale price and total appraised value of 92 residential properties in Tampa Palms, Florida 1000 900 Sale Price (in Thousands of Dollars) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Appraised Value (in Thousands of Dollars)Review: Inference for Regression We can describe the relationship between x and y using a simple linear regression model of the form  µy = ? 0 + ? 1 x 1000 900 Sale Price (in Thousands of Dollars) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Appraised Value (in Thousands of Dollars) response variable y : sale price explanatory variable x: appraised value relationship between x and y : linear strong positive We can estimate the simple linear regression model using Least Squares (LS) yielding the following LS regression line: y = 20. 94 + 1. 069x Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 4 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression Interpretation of estimated intercept b0 : corresponds to the predicted value of y , i. e. y , when x = 0 Review: Inference for Regression Interpretation of estimated slope b1 : corresponds to the change in y for a unit increase in x: when x increases by 1 unit y will increase by the value of b1 interpretation of b0 is not always meaningful (when x cannot take values close to or equal to zero) here b0 = 20. 94: when a property is appraised at zero value the predicted sales price is $20,940 — meaningful?!Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 5 / 47 b1 < 0: y decreases as x increases (negative association) b1 > 0: y increases as x increases (positive association) here b1 = 1. 069: when the appraised value of a property increases by 1 unit, i. e. by $1,000, the predicted sale price will increase by $1,069. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 6 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression Measuring strength and adequacy of a linear relationship correlation coe? cient r : measure of strength of linear relationship ? 1 ? r ? 1 here: r = 0. 9723 Review: Inference for RegressionPopulation regression line Recall from Stat 226 Population regression line The regression model that we assume to hold true for the entire population is the so-called population regression line where  µy = ? 0 + ? 1 x, coe? cient of determination r 2 : amount of variation in y explained by the ? tted linear model 0 ? r2 ? 1 here: r 2 = (0. 9723)2 = 0. 9453 ? 94. 53% of the variation in the sale price can be explained through the line ar relationship between the appraised value (x) and the sale price (y ) Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 7 / 47  µy — average (mean) value of y in population for ? xed value of x ? — population intercept ? 1 — population slope The population regression line could only be obtained if we had information on all individuals in the population. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 8 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression Based on the population regression line we can fully describe relationship between x and y up to a random error term ? y = ? 0 + ? 1 x + ? , where ? ? N (0, ? ) Review: Inference for Regression In summary, these are important notations used for SLR: Description x y Parameters ? 0 ? 1  µy ? Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 9 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013)Description Estimates b0 b1 y e Description Introduction to Business Statistics II 10 / 47 Review: Inference for Regre ssion Review: Inference for Regression Validity of predictions Assuming we have a â€Å"good† model, predictions are only valid within the range of x-values used to ? t the LS regression model! Predicting outside the range of x is called extrapolation and should be avoided at all costs as predictions can become unreliable. Why ? t a LS regression model? A â€Å"good† model allows us to make predictions about the behavior of the response variable y for di? rent values of x estimate average sale price ( µy ) for a property appraised at $223,000: x = 223 : y = 20. 94 + 1. 069 ? 223 = 259. 327 ? the average sale price for a property appraised at $223,000 is estimated to be about $259,327 What is a â€Å"good† model? — answer to this question is not straight forward. We can visually check the validity of the ? tted linear model (through residual plots) as well as make use of numerical values such as r 2 . more on assessing the validity of regression model wi ll follow. 11 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 12 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013)Introduction to Business Statistics II Review: Inference for Regression What to look for: Review: Inference for Regression Regression Assumptions residual plot: Assumptions SRS (independence of y -values) linear relationship between x and  µy for each value of x, population of y -values is normally distributed (? ? ? N) r2 : for each value of x, standard deviation of y -values (and of ? ) is ? In order to do inference (con? dence intervals and hypotheses tests), we need the following 4 assumptions to hold: Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 13 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 14 / 47Review: Inference for Regression †SRS Assumption† is hardest to check The †Linearity Assumption† and †Constant SD Assumption† are typically checked visually through a residual plot. Recall: residua l = y ? y = y ? (b0 + b1 x) The †Normality Assumption† is checked by assessing whether residuals are approximately normally distributed (use normal quantile plot) plot x versus residuals any pattern indicates violation Review: Inference for Regression Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 15 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 16 / 47 Review: Inference for RegressionReturning to the Tampa Palms, Florida example: 100 50 Residual 0 -50 -100 -150 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Review: Inference for Regression Going one step further, excluding the outlier yields 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 -0. 1 -0. 2 -0. 3 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 log Appraised 6 6. 5 7 Residual Appraised Value (in Thousands of Dollars) Note: non-constant variance can often be stabilized by transforming x, or 0. 5 y , or both: Residual 0. 0 -0. 5 -1. 0 -1. 5 4 4. 5 5 5. 5 log Appraised 6 6. 5 7 outliers/in? uential points in general should only be excluded from an analysis if they can be explained and their exclusion can be justi? ed, e. g. ypo or invalid measurements, etc. excluding outliers always means a loss of information handle outliers with caution may want to compare analyses with and without outliers Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 17 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 18 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression normal quantile plots Tampa Palms example Residuals Sale Price (in Thousands of Dollars) 100 .01 . 05 . 10 . 25 . 50 . 75 . 90 . 95 . 99 Review: Inference for Regression Residuals log Sale 50 Regression Inference Con? dence intervals and hypotheses tests -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Normal Quantile Plot -50 -100 Need to assess whether linear relationship between x and y holds true for entire population. .01 . 05 . 10 . 25 . 50 . 75 . 90 . 95 . 99 Residuals log Sale without outlier 0. 2 0. 1 0 -0. 1 -0. 2 -0. 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 This can be accomplished through testing H0 : ? 1 = 0 vs. H0 : ? 1 = 0 based on the estimates slope b1 . For simplicity we will work with the untransformed Tampa Palms data. Normal Quantile Plot Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 19 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 20 / 47 Review: Inference for RegressionReview: Inference for Regression Example: Find 95% CI for ? 1 for the Tampa Palms data set Con? dence intervals We can construct con? dence intervals (CIs) for ? 1 and ? 0 . General form of a con? dence interval estimate  ± t ? SEestimate , where t ? is the critical value corresponding to the chosen level of con? dence C t ? is based on the t-distribution with n ? 2 degrees of freedom (df) Interpretation: Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 21 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 22 / 47 Review: Inference for Regression Review: Inference for RegressionTesting for a linear relationship between x and y If we wish to tes t whether there exists a signi? cant linear relationship between x and y , we need to test H0 : ? 1 = 0 Why? If we fail to reject the null hypothesis (i. e. stick with H0 = ? 1 = 0), the LS regression model reduces to  µy = ? 1 =0 versus Ha : ? 1 = 0 ?0 + ? 1 x ? 0 + 0  · x ? 0 (constant) Introduction to Business Statistics II 24 / 47 = = implying that  µy (and hence y ) is not linearly dependent on x. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 23 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Review: Inference for Regression Review: Inference for RegressionExample (Tampa Palms data set): Test at the ? = 0. 05 level of signi? cance for a linear relationship between the appraised value of a property and the sale price Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 25 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 26 / 47 Inference about Prediction Why ? t a LS regression model? The purpose of a LS regression model is to 1 Inference about Predi ction 2 estimate  µy – average/mean value of y for a given value of x, say x ? e. g. estimate average sale price  µy for all residential property in Tampa Palms appraised at x ? $223,000 predict y – an individual/single future value of the response variable y for a given value of x, say x ? e. g. predict a future sale price of an individual residential property appraised at x ? =$223,000 Keep in mind that we consider predictions for only one value of x at a time. Note, these two tasks are VERY di? erent. Carefully think about the di? erence! Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 27 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 28 / 47 Inference about Prediction To estimate  µy and to predict a single future y value for a given level of x = x ? we can use the LS regression line y = b0 + b1 x Simply substitute the desired value of x, say x ? , for x: y = b0 + b1 x ? Inference about Prediction In addition we need to know how much variability is associated with the point estimator. Taking the variability into account provides information about how good and reliable the point estimator really is. That is, which range potentially captures the true (but unknown) parameter value? Recall from 226 ? construction of con? dence intervals Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 29 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 0 / 47 Inference about Prediction Much more variability is associated with estimating a single observation than estimating an average — individual observations always vary more than averages!! Inference about Prediction Therefore we distinguish a con? dence interval for the average/mean response  µy and a prediction interval for a single future observation y Both intervals use a t ? critical value from a t-distribution with df = n ? 2. the standard error will be di? erent for each interval: While the point estimator for the average  µ y and the future individual value y are the same (namely y = b0 + b1 x ? , the of the two con? dence intervals ! Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 31 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 32 / 47 Inference about Prediction Con? dence interval for the average/mean response  µy Width of the con? dence interval is determined using the standard error SE µ (from estimating the mean response) SE µ can be obtained in JMP Keep in mind that every con? dence interval is always constructed for one speci? c given value x ? A level C con? dence interval for the average/mean response  µy , when x takes the value x? is given by y  ± t ?SE µ , where SE µ is the standard error for estimating a mean response. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 33 / 47 Inference about Prediction Prediction interval for a single (future) value y Again, Width of the con? dence interval is determined using the standard error SE µ (from estimating the mean response) SEy can be obtained in JMP Keep in mind that every prediction interval is always constructed for one speci? c given value x ? A level C prediction interval for a single observation y , when x takes the value x ? is given by y  ± t ? SEy , where SEy is the standard error for estimating a single response.Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 34 / 47 Inference about Prediction The larger picture: Inference about Prediction The larger picture cont’d. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 35 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 36 / 47 Inference about Prediction Example: An appliance store runs a 5-month experiment to determine the e? ect of advertising on sales revenue. There are only 5 observations. The scatterplot of the advertising expenditures versus the sales revenues is shown below: Bivariate Fit of Sales Revenues (in Dollars) By Advertising expenditur eInference about Prediction Example cont’d: JMP can draw the con? dence intervals for the mean responses as well as for the predicted values for future observations (prediction intervals). These are called con? dence bands: Bivariate Fit of Sales Revenues (in Dollars) By Advertising expenditure 5000 5000 Sales Revenues (in Dollars) 4000 3000 2000 1000 Sales Revenues (in Dollars) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Advertising expenditure (in Dollars) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Advertising expenditure (in Dollars) Linear Fit Linear Fit Sales Revenues (in Dollars) = -100 + 7 Advertising expenditure (in Dollars)Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 37 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 38 / 47 Inference about Prediction Inference about Prediction Estimation and prediction (for the appliance store data) Estimation and prediction – Using JMP For each observation in a data set we can get from JMP: y , SEy , and also SE µ . In JMP do: 1 2 We wish to estimate the mean/average revenue of the subpopulation of stores that spent x ? = 200 on advertising. Suppose that we also wish to predict the revenue in a future month when our store spends x ? = 200 on advertising.The point estimate in both situations is the same: y = ? 100 + 7 ? 200 ? 1300 the corresponding standard errors of the mean and of the prediction however are di? erent: SE µ ? 331. 663 SEy ? 690. 411 40 / 47 Choose Fit Model From response icon, choose Save Columns and then choose Predicted Values, Std Error of Predicted, and Std Error of Individual. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 39 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II Inference about Prediction Estimation and prediction (cont’d) Note that in the appliance store example, SEy > SE µ (690. 411 versus 331. 63). This is true always: we can estimate a mean value for y for a given x ? much more precisely than we can predict the value of a single y for x = x ?. In estimating a mean  µy for x = x ? , the only uncertainty arises because we do not know the true regression line. In predicting a single y for x = x ? , we have two uncertainties: the true regression line plus the expected variability of y -values around the true line. Inference about Prediction Estimation and prediction (cont’d) It always holds that SE µ < SEy Therefore a prediction interval for a single future observation y will always be wider than a con? ence interval for the mean response  µy as there is simply more uncertainty in predicting a single value. Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 41 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 42 / 47 Inference about Prediction Example cont’d: JMP also calculates con? dence intervals for the mean response  µy as well as prediction intervals for single future observations y. (For instructions follow the handout o n JMP commands related to regression CIs and PIs. ) Inference about Prediction Example cont’d: To construct both a con? ence and/or prediction interval, we need to obtain SE µ and SEy in JMP for the value x ? that we are interested in: Month Ad. Expend. Sales Rev. Pred. Sales Rev. StdErr Pred Sales Revenues StdErr Indiv Sales Revenues Let’s construct one 95% CI and PI by hand and see if we can come up with the same results as JMP: In the second month the appliance store spent x = $200 on advertising and observed $1000 in sales revenue, so x = 200 and y = 1000 Using the estimated LS regression line, we predict: y = ? 100 + 7 ? 200 = 1300 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 43 / 47 Need to ? nd t ? ?rst:Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 44 / 47 Inference about Prediction A 95% CI for the mean response  µy , when x ? = 200: Inference about Prediction A 95% PI for a single future observation of y , when x ? = 200: S tat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 45 / 47 Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 46 / 47 Inference about Prediction Example cont’d: Advertising exp. Sales Rev. Lower 95% Mean Upper 95% Mean Sales Rev. Sales Rev. Lower 95% Indiv Sales Rev. Upper 95% Indiv Sales Rev. Month Stat 326 (Spring 2013) Introduction to Business Statistics II 47 / 47